The DOJ and FBI have concluded that, not only did Jeffrey Epstein kill himself, but he was most likely not, in fact, at the head of some sort of blackmail ring.

Of course, conspiracy theorists of all stripes have thrown up their hands and balked at this.

This writer thinks of himself as "conspiracy theory-curious" and always tries to keep an open mind. Like most people, we assumed that Jeffrey Epstein probably didn't kill himself, and that the mysterious origins of his billions and all the sketchy stuff around his sex parties and private islands probably concealed some sort of sophisticated blackmail operation, either for money, or, perhaps, for some intelligence agency or agencies.

Key word: probably.

Keeping an open mind means genuinely keeping an open mind. Over the years we also kept our mind open to the contrarian possibility that what is on the surface is actually what is on the surface.

As far as we're concerned, these new reports from the Trump DOJ and FBI have put our minds to rest.

Here's why.

Jeffrey Epstein Did Kill Himself

The DOJ is releasing several videos that show that no one entered the area of the Manhattan prison where Epstein was held the night he died in 2019.

To us, the possibility that Epstein did kill himself always seemed underrated. There's no reason to come up with weird conspiracy theories: this was a man who had led a billionaire's lifestyle, partying at his Manhattan mansion with the world's upper crust, flying around on his jet, going to his private island, having sex parties, and now he was destined for the absolutely horrid life of a convicted sex offender, imprisoned likely for life, in American prisons.

On top of the several investigations that concluded to suicide, the psychological factor plus the video evidence showing nobody entered his cell closes this for us.

Jeffrey Epstein Was Probably Just A Pervert Social Climber, Not A Supervillain

But the suicide theory was always less interesting than the real interesting theory: did Jeffrey Epstein run an operation to blackmail the world's most powerful people with evidence of them attending sex parties, some of which were with trafficked minors? And if so, did he do it on his own behalf, or did he do it on behalf of someone else, potentially one or several intelligence agency or agencies?

There's always the question of why Epstein went from a math teacher in high school to billionaire hedge fund manager. But all reports of Epstein point to the fact that he was an extremely charming and talented networker and social climber. He seems to have used his position as a beloved teacher at a high school attended by the children of rich people to network his way into advising some of these rich people on financial matters, and eventually starting his own fund. (As an aside: if you were an intelligence agency trying to create a "Jeffrey Epstein", you would most definitely not pick a math teacher, you would get your guy recruited into a white-shoe investment bank before having him strike out with his own fund.)

There's another fact that doesn't mesh with the intelligence theory: Epstein's personality. Epstein clearly had a massive ego and poor impulse control, two psychological traits that are incompatible with being a deep cover agent or asset.

The guest lists at Epstein's properties mesh more with the social climber theory than with the intelligence theory. Real blackmail operations target specific high-value individuals in defense, intelligence, or critical policy areas. Epstein's associates included a bizarre mix of politicians, academics, entertainers, and business leaders—hardly the focused targeting you'd expect from strategic intelligence gathering. This eclectic mix makes more sense for someone using wealth to buy access and collect famous friends as trophies.

Steven Hoffenberg, Epstein's former business partner, provided perhaps the most revealing insight into Epstein's psychology. When asked why Epstein raised his profile by flying Bill Clinton to Africa in 2002, Hoffenberg smiled and said, "He can't help himself. He broke his own rule."

This is a very important nugget of information, because it suggests two things. First, that Epstein was trying to avoid highly prominent associations, particularly in the government space, which of course is the opposite of the behavior he would have had if he was an intelligence asset. Second, that he was driven by ego and poor impulse control, which is the opposite of the traits of an intelligence operative.

The most telling fact, in our view, is Epstein's behavior after his 2008 conviction. Any rational blackmail operator would have either cashed out their leverage or dramatically changed their methods after such a close call. Instead, Epstein continued the same patterns for over a decade, suggesting compulsion rather than calculation. This is particularly true if Epstein had been an intelligence asset. After something like this, any intelligence operation would have simply cleaned up the whole thing. If there was any time when Epstein would have quote-unquote killed himself, it would have been then.

I Trust The Trump DOJ

Of course, these are all theories. Everything's a theory. But, ultimately, we have to land on the fact that we trust the Trump DOJ. What incentive would people like Kash Patel and Dan Bongino have to hide the truth about Epstein? It's well known that Donald Trump himself is not implicated in Epstein's shadier dealings. They are anti-establishmentarians and would become lifelong celebrities and heroes to most of America if there was an Epstein "story" and they broke it. It would redound massively to the political advantage of the Trump Administration. Also they are people who are "outside the system."

Director Patel, in particular, is someone who has consistently put pursuit of the truth over personal motives or risk, starting with his work with Devin Nunes on the Russia hoax. We have a hard time imagining why he would participate in a coverup like this.

Naturally, not everyone will be convinced. This is the way of the world. But while conspiracy theories are interesting, and some of them are probably true, they can't all be true. Some can just not be true.

For this writer, we're happy to consider the matter of Epstein closed.