You already knew this stuff, but nevertheless… Andrew C. Johnston, Maggie R. Jones and Nolan G. Pope have published a breakthrough new paper at NBER tracking 5 million children to estimate the impact of divorce.

The highlight of this study is indeed the methodology. It links together U.S. federal tax records, Social Security Administration data, and Census Bureau records for a massive cohort of over 5 million children born between 1988 and 1993 tracked for decades. This rich dataset allows the researchers to meticulously track parents' marital histories, household circumstances, and a wide array of children's long-term outcomes from childhood through adulthood. To overcome the common challenge of selection bias in divorce studies, the authors employ clever statistical techniques. These include panel data methods and a within-family research design that compares siblings who experienced different durations of exposure to the same parental divorce to produce so-called "natural experiments." It provides more comprehensive and more causally robust evidence that preceding literature on a broader range of adult outcomes—including earnings, college attendance, incarceration, teen births, and mortality—and quantifies the mediating roles of key mechanisms like changes in income, neighborhood quality, and parental proximity.

And so?

Well. Children experiencing parental divorce, particularly during their formative early years (ages 0-5), face significantly reduced adult earnings—by as much as 9% by age 25, and 13% by age 27—an impact comparable to receiving one less year of education. Beyond economic setbacks, these children are considerably less likely to live on a college campus and exhibit sharply higher rates of teen births (a 73% increase for early childhood divorce) and increased child mortality. Furthermore, the likelihood of incarceration rises substantially for children of divorce, pointing to broader societal costs stemming from family breakdown.

From a perspective that values societal stability and the well-being of children, this research highlights critical mechanisms through which divorce inflicts harm. The identified factors—reduced financial resources, deteriorating neighborhood quality, and decreased proximity to a non-resident parent—collectively account for a substantial portion (25% to 60%) of the negative effects observed. The study also notes the disproportionate impact of divorce on lower-income families, suggesting that marital instability can be a powerful force in perpetuating cycles of disadvantage across generations. This reinforces the conviction that strengthening marriage and supporting the traditional family unit is not merely a private matter but a crucial societal imperative for promoting child welfare and a healthier social fabric.

Policy News You Need To Know

#OneBigBeautifulBill — One of the most consequential yet underreported elements of the reconciliation bill is the proposed 5% tax on international remittances sent by non-US citizens, including visa holders and green card holders. This tax would be collected at the point of transfer by banks and money transfer services, with no exemption threshold-meaning even small remittances would be taxed. The fiscal amount would be small (we estimate around $6 billion) but it would go a long way towards penalizing immigration to the US.

#K12 — EPPC's Patrick T. Brown is in the WSJ pointing out an interesting new trend: "Last month Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee signed a bill amending the state’s family-life curricula to include discussion of marriage, family structure and the importance of work. Lawmakers in Ohio and Alabama are considering similar legislation." Specifically, schools will teach the famous "success sequence." If you don't know what that is, it refers to the sociological finding that "Young adults who graduate from high school, work full-time and avoid having children outside marriage are more likely to thrive across many social and economic measures than those who don’t." Frankly, we're surprised this wasn't already part of the curriculum in red states. Better late than never.

#DEI #VibeShift — Verizon has announced that it has ended all DEI programs and publicly recognized that they are discriminatory.

#Immigration — We very much appreciated this article by John Miano, a lawyer specializing in H-1B, detailing the specific ways in which the H-1B visas hurts American STEM graduates, in ways that seem deliberately designed to encourage their replacement with cheaper foreign workers. High skilled immigration may be a good idea in theory, but the actual design of the programs matters, and H-1B needs to go back to the drawing board.

#FreeSpeech — Satya Marar of Mercatus has some thoughts for the FTC on how it could protect free speech.

#Porn — Sen. Mike Lee and Rep. Mary Miller have introduced the Interstate Obscenity Definition Act (IODA), which is legislation aimed at bringing down the pornography industry by updating obscenity laws. Here's the quote from Sen. Lee: "Internet pornography has skated past outdated and unenforceable definitions of obscenity, reaching millions of kids and deeply wounding our society. My bill updates the definition of obscenity for the federal oversight of interstate commerce, a first and necessary step to tackling this problem." More from the Washington Stand.

#Trade — Cato's Colin Grabow with some human color on the trade wars: "How a Small Business In Denton Is Being Harmed by Higher Tariffs"

#Religion — Interesting, and unexpected finding from Ryan Burge: in the US, the relationship between education and religious attendance is positive, meaning that people with degrees attend religious services more than those with just high school diplomas. So far so unsurprising. More educated people do better on virtually all measures of conscientiousness. However, and we did not expect this: in Europe, the relationship is the exact opposite. Suggesting that there is something special about the US working class's attitude to religion.