It's the ten year anniversary of Donald J. Trump going down the golden escalator.

How much has happened since then!

We thought we would noodle on the ways that President Trump has irrevocably changed the Republican Party, in ways that will outlast him whatever happens next.

Immigration. While there is still a diversity of views on immigration in the GOP (and indeed, inside Trump himself), one can no longer be a Republican in good standing and support amnesty, or lackluster border security, or eschew some sort of deportation scheme. It's a total transformation from the "autopsy report" which essentially committed the GOP to immigrationism, which had, of course, been its position for decades. And this will remain the case whatever happens to President Trump. (Contrast trade, where the views in the GOP remain very much mixed and would become inevitable in a future where President Trump is gone and JD Vance does not become leader of the party.)

Chyna. Here, President Trump's success is not only enduring, but bipartisan. By employing one of his greatest talents, saying out loud and rudely something that everyone knew to be true but nobody dared say outloud: the US and China are not partners, they are in a Cold War, which includes an economic cold war. Once President Trump adopted a confrontational stance towards China, not only did the Republican Party follow in lockstep, but so did the Democrats, as early as his first term. It is too-little mentioned that, quietly, the Biden Administration was very hawkish on China and, of course, did very "trumpy" things including tariffs and industrial policy with the CHIPS Act.

Demographics (but electeds still don't realize it). Trump would make the GOP the "party of the working class" and create a "multiracial working class coalition." Well, it's true. The coalition is broader than that, and includes a good chunk of the middle class now. But the Republican Party is, and will remain for the foreseeable future, a much more working-class-based party than ten years ago. At least in terms of who votes for it. That reality, however, has yet to dawn on many of the people who receive those votes. But even there, there is progress…

Policy News You Need To Know

#Immigration — Andrew Arthur of the Center for Immigration Studies reports that "nearly 1 million illegal immigrants" have "self-deported" under the Trump Administration, and that this has led to "higher wages." That "self-deportation" occurs is absolutely key to achieving the Trump Administration's policy goals, so this is heartening to see. More.

#Immigration — And yet, the Trump Administration instructed ICE to pause raids and arrests in the agricultural sector, hotels, and restaurants. This directive came via an internal email from a senior ICE official, Tatum King, telling regional ICE leaders to hold off on worksite enforcement operations in these industries, except for investigations related to serious crimes like human trafficking or drug smuggling. President Trump publicly stated that the aggressive immigration enforcement was hurting key industries reliant on immigrant labor, such as farming and hospitality. This "pause" remains controversial and may yet be overturned, because if it stands it will undermine the entire effort of the Administration, particularly "self-deportation." At the same time, as we have pointed out since the election, it highlights the problem with the kind of hardline immigration policy Trump supporters favor, which is that, at some point, it starts hurting businesses' bottomline, and business is an important part of the Republican coalition. How far is the Trump Administration willing to go? We're about to find out…

#Jorbs #AI — The Journal has a piece out on the slowdown in employment among young college graduates. "The overall national unemployment rate remains around 4%, but for new college graduates looking for work, it is much higher: 6.6% over the past 12 months ending in May. That is about the highest level in a decade—excluding the pandemic unemployment spike—and up from 6% for the 12-month period a year earlier."

#Immigration — Speaking of, here is George Fishman of the Center for Immigration Studies making the case for ending OPT. OPT, or "Optional Practical Training" is, as he puts it, "a guestworker program for aliens masquerading as students." OPT allows aliens on student visas to work for employers in the US, generally after completing the coursework for their degrees; while in theory, it is meant to enable students to get on-the-job training as part of their course of study, in practice, it has become a guest worker program. Writes Fishman: "At a D.C. dinner party in 2007, a Microsoft lobbyist asked DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff to issue a regulation (without notice and comment from the public) extending the time period under which aliens on student visas could work for employers in the U.S. under OPT after completing their coursework, explaining that in light of the H-1B program’s 'severely insufficient base annual cap,' 'Microsoft ... must have access to the talent it needs' and 'the Administration ... can take a simple, immediate step to help address this crisis: extend ... the period that students can work ... for OPT'." Given the facts above about the job market for recent graduates, this seems like a no-brainer.

#Fertility — Yawn. The New York Times has a piece out on the drop in the birth rate. The solution? Imitate the Nordics, of course! More taxpayer-funded childcare, parental leave, and so on. A pro-family agenda must be open-minded about such policies, but the piece waits until two thirds of the way down to mention that…the birth rates in the Nordics are cratering. It conspicuously fails to mention the one rich country left with good birth rates: Israel.

#USSteel #IndustrialPolicy — The deal marrying US Steel and Nippon Steel includes a "golden share" for the US government, which would grant the government significant board oversight and veto power. Free market conservatives will scream. We will just note that for decades and until very recently (when it was dragged kicking and screaming by the European Commission after many years of litigation and regulation) Germany had a law granting the government a golden share in each of its major companies. Germany is usually upheld as a model of successful economic policy.

#BillOfRights #LGBT — We'd missed this until now, and were aghast to learn about it. Essentially, Colorado passed a law that prevented counselors from counseling gender-confused youth in any direction other than towards the transgender cult. That law is now before the Supreme Court. More from the great people at Alliance Defending Freedom.

#Education — Very good piece from AEI's Rick Hess, who we always read on education matters, on civics education, calling for "post-BS civics education." Civics education, he believes, rightly, is too much about "passions or participation." He points out that, "at a time when voting is at historic highs, politics has become entertainment, and ideologically-motivated murder has become a GoFundMe cause." Instead, he suggests, it should focus more on "ground rules and responsibilities."