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Baron Public Affairs and PolicySphere have cooperated on a series of articles on the upcoming EU directive CS3D:
"Understanding CS3D: The New EU Law That Could Cost U.S. Industry Trillions"
"CS3D Is Just One Way In Which Europe Exploits American Economic Vitality"
Lots Of Republican Voters Get SNAP
The ongoing government shutdown is set, if things remain in place, to mean SNAP benefits won't be delivered on November 1st.
There seems to be a widespread impression that this is fine, because SNAP recipients are mostly Democratic voters. But the coalition is changing. So, is it true? If cutting off SNAP ends up hurting our coalition, we should know that. So we decided to try to calculate it.
Our starting point is straightforward: 41.7 million Americans received SNAP benefits in fiscal year 2024, representing approximately 12.3% of the U.S. population. However, this aggregate figure includes substantial numbers of individuals ineligible to vote.
USDA demographic data from FY 2023 reveals that 39% of SNAP recipients are children under eighteen. This age distribution reflects the program's fundamental purpose: SNAP disproportionately serves families with children, providing critical nutrition assistance during periods of economic vulnerability. Indeed, 62% of SNAP recipients live in households with children.
This creates our first necessary adjustment: 41.7 million total recipients × 0.61 (adult proportion) = 25.4 million voting-eligible adults.
SNAP recipients are not demographically representative of the broader electorate. The adult SNAP population breaks down roughly as follows: non-Hispanic white: 42-45%; Black: 25-27%; Hispanic: 21-23%; Asian/Other: 6-10%. 62.4% of SNAP recipients have a high school degree or less. Unsurprisingly, income concentration is severe: 73% of SNAP households maintain incomes at or below the federal poverty line, with average monthly household income of $1,059.
Crunch those numbers, and estimate a turnout of 45% for SNAP recipients (lower than the national average), and you end up with a figure of 4.6-5.5 million SNAP-eligible Trump voters.
Running similar numbers, we end up with the estimate that Harris won SNAP recipients by 56.1%, versus 43.9% for Trump.
Whew!
Who cares about SNAP recipients, right? They're just a bunch of Democrats!
Well, no.
There are rural areas where there are large numbers of Trump-voting SNAP recipients.
And many of these rural areas are in swing states.
Using our methodology, we estimate ~246,000 Trump-voting SNAP recipients in Pennsylvania. Trump won Pennsylvania by approximately 120,000 votes. Trump-voting SNAP recipients represented about 1.5% of his total vote share in the state.
We estimate ~145,000 Trump-voting SNAP recipients in Michigan. (We estimate lower Trump support among white SNAP recipients in Michigan because of the state's union history and urban-rural divide.) Trump won Michigan by approximately 80,000 votes.
We estimate ~78,000 Trump-voting SNAP recipients in Wisconsin. Trump won Wisconsin by only 29,397 votes (0.87%), the narrowest margin of any swing state. Trump-voting SNAP recipients outnumbered his margin of victory by nearly 3:1.
So, time to panic? Time to junk the filibuster and reopen the government on a party-line vote?
No. We cannot give in to hostage negotiations, and we should trust in the political wisdom that the electorate blames the party that caused the shutdown.
But still, it's better to go into situations like this with open eyes.
Policy News You Need To Know
The PolicySphere Briefing is brought to you by Baron Public Affairs
Baron Public Affairs and PolicySphere have cooperated on a series of articles on the upcoming EU directive CS3D:
"Understanding CS3D: The New EU Law That Could Cost U.S. Industry Trillions"
"CS3D Is Just One Way In Which Europe Exploits American Economic Vitality"
#EnergyDominance — This is a big deal. Energy Secretary Chris Wright directed FERC to initiate two rulemakings that represent a fundamental recalibration of energy infrastructure policy: enabling joint, co-located load and generation interconnection requests while streamlining study timelines, and clarifying that third parties lack veto authority over preliminary hydroelectric permits. The measures specifically target the accelerated deployment of large industrial loads including data centers.
#EnergyDominance — Speaking of, Interior is opening up a bunch of land in Alaska to exploration.
#TheEconomyStupid — CPI came out lower than expected.
#Chyna #Trade — Secretary Bessent secured trade deals with Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia over the weekend. In the context of ongoing negotiations with China, these deals could provide important leverage. Bessent emerged from negotiations yesterday with China optimistic.
#CancelCulture #KnowingWhatTimeItIs — The national College Republicans of America have announced the immediate revocation of the Boston College Republicans' charter, designating the chapter an "Unwelcome Organization" under their bylaws for showing "tremendous disrespect" to guest speaker Nick Solheim. This whole fracas began after Solheim, CEO of American Moment (and a friend of the Sphere) delivered a speech on October 20 at a Boston College Republicans event, where he warned attendees of existential threats from progressive policies on immigration and LGBTQ+ rights, referenced the murder of Charlie Kirk, and warned young conservative men "They will kill you and everybody that you love" in reference to progressives. Shockingly, the chapter then denounced Solheim, calling his words "unprecedented and unrepresentative." Thankfully, the cancellers have been cancelled.
#GreatLeftWingBlob — A recent report from the Capital Research Group and Discovery Institute alleges systematic financial mismanagement in the homelessness programs of King County, WA, which includes Seattle. The report details public funds being diverted to extremist organizations including Antifa. The investigation documents troubling accountability gaps: a King County audit found only 1% of $1.8 billion in expenditures had proper documentation, suggesting possible widespread fraud, while the King County Regional Homelessness Authority reportedly pays housing vendors three times private charity rates with minimal outcome reporting. Most significantly, King County Executive Dow Constantine acknowledged in a December 2024 interview his inability to estimate total homelessness spending for any year under his authority. The report's central thesis holds that this accountability vacuum has enabled radical groups to infiltrate homeless advocacy organizations and redirect taxpayer resources toward violent activities rather than addressing homelessness. DOJ, you know what to do…
#Healthcare #StateCapacity — A new report from the great folks Paragon Health Institute reveals that the CMS Innovation Center, despite initial CBO projections of $34 billion in savings between 2017-2026, has instead increased net Medicare spending by $5.4 billion during its first decade of operation, with only four of 90 models achieving nationwide expansion authorization. The report, authored by Senior Policy Analyst Jackson Hammond, identifies systemic failures in the Center's reliance on voluntary participation models, which enabled favorable selection by providers and necessitated generous financial incentives that undermined savings potential. For example, the Oncology Care Model experienced a $639 million net loss despite reducing episode costs by 2.1 percent. Hammond recommends Congress impose statutory guardrails limiting demonstration duration (5-7 years), geographic scope, and simultaneous model proliferation while requiring that expansions proceed through notice-and-comment rulemaking rather than administrative fiat, ultimately suggesting the Center face termination if reformed approaches fail to generate aggregate savings.
#Immigration — DOT reports that the asylum seeker trucker who killed three motorists in a crash on Tuesday was improperly issued a CDL by California DMV. DOT had previously found California DMV of “significant compliance failures” and notified the agency on Sept 26 that they had 30 days to fully audit and rescind improperly issued licenses. This is a national outrage. Three people are dead because of illegal policy choices made by California.
#Immigration — The good folks at CIS have submitted a substantive regulatory comment supporting DHS's proposed reforms to the H-1B visa selection process. The proposed rule would replace the current random lottery system with a wage-weighted selection mechanism designed to prioritize higher-skilled, higher-paid foreign workers. While endorsing this market-based approach, CIS urges DHS to implement additional safeguards including restricting cap exemptions to direct employment relationships, reinstating itinerary requirements, repealing automatic deference policies, tightening specialty occupation definitions, and coordinating with the Department of Labor to close wage-setting loopholes. This represents a critical opportunity to restore the H-1B program's statutory intent: providing temporary access to genuinely scarce specialized talent rather than facilitating labor cost arbitrage through imported workers. All good ideas.
#K12 — AEI's Nat Malkus calls our attention to a new study examining the effects of Florida’s statewide cellphone ban on students in a large unnamed Florida district. The study shows measurable academic and behavioral improvements following the ban's enactment. Using smartphone location data to verify actual compliance, researchers documented a 1.1 percentile point gain in test scores by the second year, though this represents a conservative estimate, as overall scores increased 2-3 percentile points during the period. Notably, approximately half these academic gains derived from improved attendance, with unexcused absences declining particularly among middle and high school students. While initial implementation produced temporary suspension increases (predominantly in-school suspensions concentrated among black and male students), disciplinary rates normalized within a year, suggesting that the policy was eventually accepted. The findings reveal stronger effects for male students and older cohorts, exactly the types of pupils often facing particular academic challenges.
#Culture — Heritage just published a "Heritage Guide to Historic Sites," in conjunction with the approaching 250th anniversary of American independence, this digital resource provides evaluative assessments of battlefields, presidential estates, and museums through an A-B-C rating system measuring historical accuracy. In other words, it's a counterweight to the insane wokification of historical sites we have seen since 2020 or earlier.
The PolicySphere Briefing is brought to you by Baron Public Affairs
Baron Public Affairs and PolicySphere have cooperated on a series of articles on the upcoming EU directive CS3D:
"Understanding CS3D: The New EU Law That Could Cost U.S. Industry Trillions"
"CS3D Is Just One Way In Which Europe Exploits American Economic Vitality"
Chart of the Day
OpenAI is projecting historically unprecedented growth to $100 billion in revenue (from Andreessen Horowitz).
