Happy All Hallows' Eve! There will be no briefing tomorrow in celebration of All Saints' Day.

You may recall that a recurring topic of debate on here is the link between Republican affiliation and marriage. More and more policy wonks and strategists, witnessing the gender polarization of the electorate, are becoming seduced by what was once called the Sailer Strategy: married people, particularly married women, tend to vote Republican more, so Republicans should embrace public policies to support marriage, which will mean more married women and therefore more Republican voters. In an era of gender polarization of the vote, a Republican coalition consisting of "men, plus the women who love them" (i.e., married women) would mean, almost by definition, a majority coalition.

This link has held for decades, but EPPC's Patrick T Brown, in particular, has questioned it. As marriage stratifies more by education, and as voting also stratifies more by education, that link could weaken and disappear, he has argued.

Not so fast, argues a fascinating new note from the Institute for Family Studies: "the data suggest that the relationship between the Republican Party and marriage has largely persisted amidst the Trump era," the authors, Brad Wilcox, Wendy Wang, and Sam Herrin write.

"Overall, the relative Republican advantage when it comes to [marriage] has grown a bit, even as fewer Americans—including Republicans—are currently married." In 2000, Republicans were more married than Democrats by 10 percentage points; in 2022, Republicans were more married than Democrats by 15 percentage points.

To the point about educational polarization, while it is true that marriage is down most among less-educated Americans, "it is also the case that less-educated Republicans are markedly more likely to be married."

Even today, there is a strong marriage gap in support for Harris or Trump. In an August poll, voters break 52% Trump versus 38% Harris, while unmarried voters break 53% Harris versus 33% Trump. Those are striking numbers.

So there.

Policy News You Need To Know

#TaxPolicy — Very useful: the Tax Foundation has launched a new interactive tracker of the candidates' tax plans.

#Climate — American Action Forum's Doug Holtz-Eakin has a good brief on climate policy. He critiques the Biden-Harris Administration's approach which focuses on clean energy subsidies, and instead advocates for a carbon border tax.

#Telecoms — It should not be forgotten that the broadcast networks operate because they have been granted licenses by the Federal government, and that these grants are contingent on certain conditions of public service. The political bias of these networks calls this into question. But could a second-term President Trump simply revoke their licenses? Brookings' Tom Wheeler explains.

#Immigration — Important report from CIS's Todd Bensman, who went to Mexico to investigate a migrant caravan there: he believes Mexico will likely unleash a wave of migrants after the election.

#Starlink — Starlink has announced that they only need five more launches to complete their Direct to Cell constellation. This is significant because it shows how fast SpaceX moves relative to government when it comes to things that governments like to get involved in, like telecommunications.

#VotingRights — According to a new interim report by the House Judiciary Committee's subcommittee on the weaponization of government, Big Tech companies censored the Hunter Biden laptop story specifically "to please what they assumed would be an incoming Biden-Harris administration, a congressional investigation found," the New York Post reports.

#Politics — Our favorite election analyst is Sean Trende, and he says we shouldn't "pay (much) attention" to early voting numbers.

Thursday Essays

At Law & Liberty, the great Titus Techera has written an appreciation of that great Frank Capra Halloween classic, Arsenic and Old Lace.

Letting the opposition have its say: in Providence magazine, Michael Lucchese argues that Halloween is a conservative holiday.

The New York Times has an overview of the books coming out in November that they want you to know about, including a new novel by Haruki Murakami.

Manhattan Institute's Charles Fain Lehman has come up with a great new concept: the Iron Law of Liberalization.

At National Affairs, Christopher Barnard proposes a new energy-security paradigm.

The researcher Nathan Cofnas agrees with something your correspondent has long believed: wokeness hasn't peaked; it has barely even begun.