The GOP's "big, beautiful" reconciliation bill has reached a critical juncture at the House Budget Committee, which was scheduled to mark up the legislation this morning. The committee's role is largely procedural, ie to stitch together portions of the bill reported out by 11 other House committees into one massive package before sending it to the Rules Committee on Monday.

However, what was expected to be a formality has turned into a serious bottleneck. At least three Republicans on the committee, led by Chip Roy, have publicly stated they will vote against advancing the measure, with Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) reportedly leaning toward "no".

With a 21-16 Republican majority on the committee and Democrats expected to vote unanimously against the bill, GOP leadership can afford to lose no more than two Republican votes for the measure to advance. The absence of Rep. Brandon Gill further narrows the margin, meaning a single additional GOP defection could block the bill in committee.

The opposition centers on concerns that the bill does not go far enough in cutting federal spending and lacks sufficient cost analysis, particularly regarding Medicaid reforms. Hardline conservatives are demanding deeper and faster spending cuts, immediate changes to Medicaid eligibility for immigrants, and an accelerated start date for work requirements in Medicaid. Delays in receiving cost estimates from CBO have also fueled skepticism among these members.

As we write this, President Trump has just posted a "Truth" in support of the "big, beautiful bill," urging Republicans to get their act together and move the bill forward.

The reconciliation package contains several major provisions that have become flashpoints within the GOP conference:

Medicaid Work Requirements. Some conservatives are pushing to accelerate implementation of new Medicaid work requirements from 2029 to 2027. This change could generate tens of billions of much-needed savings but would also potentially cause more coverage losses ahead of the 2028 election. Conservatives are also demanding immigrants in the country illegally be immediately removed from Medicaid access.

IRA Climate Tax Credits. Hawks want a faster phase-out of "clean" energy IRA tax credits, however some Republicans, particularly those in the Bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus led by Rep. Andrew Garbarino, are fighting to preserve at least some of these credits. Speaker Johnson has promised to use a "scalpel" rather than a "sledgehammer" approach.

SALT Cap. As you know, blue state Republicans are seeking to raise the SALT cap. It's irresponsible, bad policy, and a budget-buster, but might also be crucial to keep the House in the midterms. The latest proposal from this group is $62,000, so more than double the $30,000 cap in the current Ways and Means bill. This remains an unresolved sticking point.

Federal Employee Pensions. Some Republicans have raised concerns about proposals that would require federal employees to contribute more money to their retirement savings.

Cost Estimates. Several budget hawks are demanding to see complete CBO scores before advancing the bill, which could take days. And every day matters given the tightness of the deadlines. After meeting with CBO director Phillip Swagel, reps were informed that a final score for the Energy and Commerce portion of the bill, which includes the crucial Medicaid provisions, would not be available until next week.

So, what happens now?

1. Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington could mark up the bill today but postpone the final vote if needed.

2. Leadership could make concessions to conservatives on Medicaid work requirements and IRA tax credits, but this risks alienating moderates.

3. Any changes to the underlying reconciliation bill would need to happen at the Rules Committee, which is scheduled to consider the legislation on Monday.

Even if the bill makes it through the House, Senate Republicans have indicated they would significantly modify key provisions. Sen. Grassley has suggested the House's approach to slashing funding for SNAP would need a "do-over" in the Senate, warning it pushes too many costs onto states.

We'll see.

Policy News You Need To Know

#AI — In the UAE, President Trump signed a major AI deal in the UAE, the substance of which is that the UAE will invest large amounts to build or finance data centers in the US to help the US reach AI dominance. Here's the White House release.

#Reconciliation — Not going to fix the budget, but still nice and worth doing on principle alone: "Republicans could net about $1.4 billion in savings through cutting taxpayer funding for child gender transitions."

#Immigration #Crime — This seems overdue: "Trump Administration Moves to Block the U.S. Travel of Mexican Politicians Who It Says Are Linked to the Drug Trade." It's an open secret that many figures in the Mexican government are in league with the drug cartels. "The list of Mexicans who could be targeted for U.S. visa restrictions includes leaders of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s party, state governors and former Cabinet ministers."

#Immigration #Globalization — You may have seen in the news (or even been affected): Coinbase, the biggest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, was hacked. Badly. Among the leaks, there are photos of people's IDs, their home addresses, and some digits of their Social Security numbers. As their postmortem explains, a key vulnerability was outsourcing. Coinbase outsourced some of its tech work to overseas contractors, and some of those contractors took bribes from hackers to sell sensitive customer data. Seems like it's the sort of thing to keep in mind when dealing with these kinds of issues.

#DOGE — Well, well, well. Looks like the wonks were right. Since SSA installed new anti-fraud checks on claims made over the phone, only 2 claims out of over 110,000 were found to likely be fraudulent, according to internal documents. Not only that, but the policy has slowed down payments, though. Retirement claim processing is down 25%. Natalie Alms at NextGov has the story.

#Trade — Axios has a piece on how many American small businesses are struggling in the new tariff environment: they are reliant on foreign inputs, and foreign markets have apparently cooled on "Made in America" products.

#Trade — Speaking of, Cato's Clark Packard argues against something which seems like a truly boneheaded idea: the US withdrawing from the WTO.

#SNAP — Good fact sheet from EPIC on what's at stake in SNAP reform.

Friday Essays

Excellent report by Frannie Block and Jay Solomon in The Free Press on "How Qatar Bought America." If you're in DC, you know it's true…

The June/July Issue of First Things is out and it's a really good one! Self-recommending contributions include, first and foremost, an essay by Eric Zemmour on the future of Christian Europe, a balanced reflection by Bishop Robert Barron on the Papacy of Pope Francis, and Matthew Schmitz on the ten years of Obergefell.

Long Politico Magazine profile of Gail Slater, new head of the DOJ antitrust division, who is hailed as "the woman leading the surging MAGA antitrust movement." Like it or not, antitrust as part of conservative politics is here to stay, it seems.

For over fifteen years, Ross Douthat has been the best columnist in America. After just a few weeks in "the game," he is shaping up to be one of the best podcasters in America. As frequent readers will know, we don't like recommending podcasts (except ours! (YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts)) because they are not the most efficient means of consuming information, but Douthat's podcast "Interesting Times" has quickly become a must-listen for anyone who cares about public events, and his latest episode, interviewing AI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo, co-author of the "AI 2027" doom scenario which we have mentioned several times before, is being widely shared, and for good reason.

SEE ALSO: Our interview with Ross Douthat on his excellent (and NYT-bestselling) new book "Believe": YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.

Counterpoint: an article in the NYT by Cade Metz throws cold water on the whole idea of "artificial general intelligence" which is the prelude to AI doom scenarios. The speed of progress of AI models has slowed and it's unclear whether we will get AGI "any time soon."

Journalist Alex Salvi has published this widely-shared report on the inside story of how Pope Leo XIV was elected. All reporting about Papal Conclaves should be taken with a heavy dollop of salt, but Salvi's report has the ring of truth. The upshot is that the divide was less "progressives vs conservatives" as is so often alleged, but "Americans vs everyone else," with American cardinals coordinating to back their preferred candidate.

On this topic, on the very well-read traditionalist Catholic blog Rorate Cæli, Serre Verwejj gives an assessment of the new Pope: "Leo XIV: the Man, the Priest, and the Bishop - Who is He?" Tl;dr: "Overall he seems clearly orthodox on abortion, euthanasia, contraception, LGBT, the appointment of bishops and the ordination of women, while his stance on communion for the divorced remarried and priestly celibacy seem difficult to know with certainty. He also appears to hold to an orthodox understanding of the faith, being unchangeable, and bishops being mere servants of it. His actual stance on migration appears somewhat moderate, as well."

You should read Charles Fain Lehman's history of the War on Drugs; he has just published Part III, on the Parents Movement (here's Part I and Part II). "Did you know that in the 1970s, there was a nationwide grassroots anti-drug movement? That it included some 3,000 groups, led by parents black and white? And that it was all a response to the fact that in 1979, half of all teenagers used drugs, including 1/3rd other than pot?"

At the Institute of Family Studies, Stanford student Kasen Stephensen makes the case for marrying early.