Happy Birthday, America!

And, you're welcome.

Now, as far as we know, the House should pass the One Big Beautiful Bill today, the Senate-passed version as-is, after a lot of vote-whipping by Speaker Johnson, President Trump, and Vice President Vance, although it is currently behind schedule.

We are operating on the assumption that it will happen, which is why we invite you to read yesterday's Briefing.

Enjoy a very well-deserved Fourth of July weekend.

Policy News You Need To Know

#Awful — Absolutely tragic news: Eric Tarpinian-Jachym, a 21 year old student at UMass Amherst and an intern in the office of Congressman Ron Estes, was murdered in a shooting in Northwest DC, apparently catching a stray bullet. “I will remember his kind heart and how he always greeted anyone who entered our office with a cheerful smile,” Congressman Estes said in a statement. “We are grateful to Eric for his service to Kansas’ 4th District and the country. Please join Susan and me in praying for his family and respecting their privacy during this heartbreaking time.” It's just so incredibly sad and we wish him to rest in peace and assure his family and loved ones of our prayers. It's also a testament to the decline of order in DC, which is simply inacceptable in the capital of the most powerful nation on Earth. Congress can fix this.

#TheEconomyStupid #Jorbs — This morning's jobs report showed that employers added 147,000 jobs, surpassing economist expectations, which had ranged from 106,000 to 115,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, a surprise drop from May’s 4.2% and below forecasts of 4.3%. Job growth exceeded predictions. All good news for the Admin.

#Immigration #Jorbs — Speaking of good news about jobs… Well, will you look at that? Meatpacking plants are suddenly coming up with lots of interesting new ideas to attract American workers, such as higher wages, more attractive shift hours, ergonomic work stands, generous pension plans, and even upgraded toilet facilities, according to a new report. How odd! Could this have anything to do with the Trump Administration's immigration crackdown? Could it be that it is leading to better jobs and better working conditions for Americans as immigration hawks have been predicting all along, rather than the economic car crash that doves have been predicting? Shocking!

#HigherEd — Good news from AEI Senior Fellow Preston Cooper: "Congress is on the verge of eliminating Grad PLUS and imposing caps on federal graduate student loans for the first time since 2006. Grad PLUS has fueled tuition hikes, exploded student debt, and padded the budgets of wealthy universities. Its demise is welcome. The One Big Beautiful Bill eliminates Grad PLUS and sets new caps on borrowing for graduate students. Most graduate students will be allowed to borrow up to $20,500 per year. Students in professional programs such as medicine, dentistry, and law can borrow up to $50,000 per year." More.

#JudicialShenanigans — As Justice Kavanaugh predicted, district judges have started using the class action loophole left by the Supreme Court's previous decision on nationwide injunctions.

#ChildrenOfMen — Headline from the Census Bureau, presented without comment: "Older Adults Outnumber Children in 11 States and Nearly Half of U.S. Counties"

#Drugs #Disorder — Manhattan Institute Fellow Charles Fain Lehman with a welcome op-ed in the Journal arguing that the Trump Administration should not reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug.

#AmericanManufacturing — Very interesting: Palantir and BlueForge Alliance, which is "the nonprofit integrator supporting the U.S. Navy’s efforts to strengthen the maritime industrial base," have announced a strategic initiative called "Warp Speed for Warships" designed to significantly accelerate shipbuilding. You will recall Palantir recently announced a similar partnership, this time for building nuclear power plants. Is this PR or is there a way Palantir's AI software magic can actually meaningfully speed up these kinds of large industrial projects? We will find out…

#Merica #VibeShift — Under Marco Rubio, the State Department has unveiled a new graphic identity and logos that re-emphasize traditional American imagery such as the Stars and Stripes. This may seem trivial, but symbols matter, especially here: over the past four years, it often seemed like the imagery America wanted to project abroad was much more the rainbow and BLM flags than the American flag. This, also, is part of the vibe shift.

Thursday Essays

As we head into 4th of July weekend, you may want to do yourself a favor and re-read President Trump's famous Mount Rushmore Speech, a wonderful celebration of the values of the Declaration of Independence.

Remember President Trump's First Inaugural, descrying an "American carnage"? And President George W. Bush, behind him, clearly mouthing, in disbelieving shock, "that's some dark sh-t"? In many ways the debate between populists and elitists is a debate about how bad things are, and whether they're getting worse or better. If things are very bad and getting radically worse, then a radical course correction, even one that involves significant risks, is worth a shot. If things are mostly good and improving, then you do not want a radical course correction. Anyway, the case for things being good is presented artfully in The Free Press by legendary investor Cliff Asness and AEI free marketeer Michael R. Strain; you may remember that, also in The Free Press, the great historian Niall Ferguson made opposite case.

In South Africa's illegal gold mines, thousands of people live in mile-deep abandoned gold mines, often for years, where gangs control food distribution and hundreds are killed. Chilling story by Kimon de Greef in The New Yorker.

In his newsletter, Ross Douthat gives us his take on that whole UFO thing. Self-recommending.

"There’s a genre of right-wing social media posting that’s dedicated to retro-Americana aesthetics: Norman Rockwell paintings, pictures of cute New England towns, preppy clothing, 1950s family scenes, Beach Boys-era Southern California, and similar things," Aaron Renn writes in a Compact article. However, he notes, "to the extent that any such aesthetics or lifestyles are actually practiced today, it’s usually by liberals, not conservatives." Thus with the cultural contradictions of conservatism…