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A Whole Six Days Left Till Shutdown

Here’s where things stand as of today, with six days left on the clock.

The House passed a seven-week CR on Friday, 19 September, by 217–212. The bill would keep agencies funded at current levels through 21 November and layers in a targeted boost for physical security of federal officials. The Senate immediately rejected the House bill, 44–48, falling well short of the 60 votes needed. President Trump has since canceled a planned meeting with Democratic leaders, increasing the odds of a lapse at midnight, 30 September–1 October. House leaders say they’ve done their part and don’t plan to reconvene before the deadline.

First, the basics. None of the twelve FY2026 appropriations bills has been enacted. In that situation, a CR is the standard bridge to keep the lights on while conferences finish their work. Because Senate rules require 60 votes to advance appropriations, the minority can block any “clean” CR, no matter who holds the gavel. That’s exactly what happened: Democrats used the filibuster to stop the House-passed CR, and their narrower, shorter Senate alternative also failed.

The core dispute centers on the expiring enhanced ACA subsidies, set to sunset December 31. These Biden-era expansions, which have helped draw a record 24 million enrollees with 92% receiving assistance, would cost approximately $30 billion to extend for one year. Democrats have made this their hill to die on, threatening shutdown unless Republicans cave.

The political calculation here is fascinating. According to KFF, 45 percent of Americans buying insurance through ACA exchanges identify as Republican or lean Republican, with three in ten identifying as MAGA supporters. Democrats are betting that Republicans will take the blame when average out-of-pocket costs increase by 79%, with state-by-state increases ranging from 49% to 195%.

Their demands extend beyond ACA subsidies, however. The Democratic proposal seeks to reverse Medicaid provisions from the OBBBA, restore frozen foreign aid funding, and reinstate public broadcasting allocations—in other words, battles we've already fought.

There's a clear political aspect here, which is fascinating: the Democrats have put themselves in the situation of the Tea Party from ten years ago, engineering a government shutdown mostly out of righteous partisan rage. Democrats are gambling that Trump's previous shutdown history and current approval ratings will insulate them from blame. Schumer preemptively labeled it a "Trump shutdown," claiming "he is barreling right toward it".

The calendar works against resolution. With both chambers out for Rosh Hashanah and the Senate not scheduled to return until September 29, we're looking at a likely shutdown beginning October 1. Unlike the 35-day shutdown in Trump's first term, when five appropriations bills had already passed, this would affect every federal department.

It looks like the Dems are just determined to shut down the government. The history that your correspondent learned (painfully) is that Americans tend to blame whoever caused the shutdown for the shutdown, regardless of their views on the alleged underlying policy issues.

Policy News You Need To Know

#DomesticTerrorism — You may have seen that yet another left-wing terrorist attacked an ICE facility. This needs to stop, pure and simple, and the only thing that will do it is a whole-of-government effort targeting not just these terrorists but the entire NGO infrastructure that makes them possible.

#DomesticTerrorism — Speaking of, here's the official designation of Antifa as a terrorist group. The immediate policy implications center on unlocking enhanced federal investigative and prosecutorial tools that were previously unavailable for domestic groups. The terrorism designation enables DOJ to pursue RICO-style cases against Antifa's organizational structure and funding networks, while giving Treasury expanded authority to freeze assets and investigate financial flows—essentially applying counterterrorism finance frameworks domestically. This creates precedent for federal preemption of what have traditionally been state and local law enforcement matters, particularly around protest-related violence, which will likely trigger federalism debates but should strengthen coordination between federal agencies and red-state AGs already pursuing similar angles. The designation also provides political cover for more aggressive federal deployment responses to civil unrest and potentially enables new legislative proposals around domestic terrorism statutes that have been stalled for years.

#Shutdowns — You may have seen material on Ron Johnson's Eliminate Shutdowns Act. The way it works is pretty simple: it implements automatic two-week rolling continuing resolutions at prior-year spending levels whenever appropriations lapse. This iteration represents Johnson's second attempt after a 2019 version passed his committee 12-2 but stalled in both chambers, and it notably avoids the complexity of earlier automatic CR proposals that included declining funding percentages or the 94% funding level found in competing bills like the Government Shutdown Prevention Act. While the bill would theoretically eliminate the leverage shutdowns provide in forcing appropriations agreements, interestingly, Johnson pairs it with a longer-term vision of converting to multiyear funding cycles (six two-year appropriations rotating annually) to address the underlying dysfunction.

#FirstAmendment — In a watershed moment for digital free speech, Google has formally acknowledged (PDF) to Chairman Jim Jordan and the House Judiciary Committee that the Biden Administration's censorship pressure campaign was "unacceptable and wrong," marking a stunning reversal in Big Tech's approach to content moderation that should hopefully send shockwaves through Silicon Valley and beyond. The company's letter makes a number of concrete concessions: YouTube is extending an open invitation for all creators previously deplatformed for political speech to return, abandoning its reliance on so-called "fact-checkers," rolling back COVID-19 and election-related content restrictions, and implementing a Community Notes system similar to X's model, all while explicitly admitting that the Biden White House pressured them to censor content that didn't even violate their own policies. This victory, secured through persistent oversight by the Judiciary Committee, exposes the unholy alliance between government coercion and corporate compliance that transformed our digital public square into a censorship apparatus during the pandemic years, vindicating those of us who warned that "misinformation" policies were always about political control rather than public safety. Perhaps most significantly, Google's letter raises alarm bells about the European Union's Digital Services Act, warning that European regulations could force American companies to remove lawful content and threaten freedom of expression both "within and OUTSIDE of the EU"—a extraterritorial power grab that should unite Republicans in defending American tech platforms from foreign censorship regimes that would make even the Biden Administration's pressure campaign look restrained by comparison.

#AmericanManufacturing #NationalSecurity — Heritage's new "Nine for the Navy" proposals represent a refreshing departure from the usual conservative hand-wringing about government spending, offering instead a muscular industrial policy blueprint that should resonate with those of us who recognize that free-market fundamentalism won't rebuild America's shipbuilding capacity in time to deter China. With a proposed $153 billion Naval Act for 45 warships plus $9.7 billion in additional FY 2026 spending, Brent Sadler's plan would establish a fifth Pacific shipyard, accelerate the Constellation-class frigate program with dual-shipyard production, and implement block-buying for critical munitions like the SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles. The proposal's emphasis on creating new contracting mechanisms (SAWS) and multi-year procurement authorities mirrors successful commercial practices while addressing the boom-bust cycle that has plagued naval shipbuilding for decades. Most significantly, the plan embraces the reality that shipyard capacity, skilled labor development, and supply chain resilience require deliberate state action, much like China, South Korea, and other countries have demonstrated.

#LawAndOrder — North Carolina Republicans move to eliminate cashless bail for some offenses in response to the stabbing of Iryna Zurustka. It's a local story but the horrifying murder of Ms Zurustka has been a national story, and it's good to see Republicans responding.

#LawAndOrder — The war on Fentanyl rages on. Treasury announced sanctions on Indian nationals running an online pharmacy selling Fentanyl pills. The war is multifactorial and multifront.

#Boondoggles — USDA has announced grantees of a $200 program for "Community Wildfire Defense Grants." This sounds nice and federalist (communities can fight fires on their own rather than rely on the Federal government!) but this is a classic Washington boondoggle that should have been DOGEd. The CWDG program prioritizes paperwork over chainsaws, planning documents over prescribed burns, and process over results. Demand outstripped available funding at a rate of 3:1 in the first round, not because the program is effective, but because it's essentially free federal money for communities willing to navigate the bureaucratic maze. The program requires communities to develop or update Community Wildfire Protection Plans that must involve multiple stakeholder meetings (gotta meet those stakeholders!), obtain signatures from local, state, and federal officials, and include detailed risk assessments and prioritization matrices. According to the US Forest Service, less than 10% of communities at risk from wildfire have developed a CWPP despite this requirement existing since 2003—that's a two-decade track record of failure. Most damning: Grants cannot be used for home hardening activities, such as retrofitting roofs or vents to make them wildfire-resistant, interventions that actually protect structures. Meanwhile, as President Trump has often said, research shows that controlled burns are the best way to prevent forest fires, but the CWDG program treats prescribed fire as just one option among many rather than the proven solution it is.