The Briefing will return on the Tuesday after Easter.

Our lead item this morning is the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, which had a huge plunge. This survey, which is a closely-watched indicator in the financial and economic world, is important, because, as its name suggests, it is a survey of actual businesses, and manufacturing businesses no less. In other words, it is the first significant bit of "real" economic news and data (not the stock market or projections) we have seen since President Trump's Liberation Day.

And it is not good.

"The diffusion index for current general activity dropped 39 points to -26.4 in April, its lowest reading since April 2023 (see Chart 1). Nearly 39 percent of the firms reported decreases in general activity this month, while 13 percent reported increases; 41 percent reported no change. The index for new orders also fell sharply, from 8.7 in March to -34.2 this month, its lowest reading since April 2020. The current shipments index decreased 11 points to -9.1 this month."

As Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal points out, "Only three times has the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey plunged more in a month. Twice in spring 2020, and once in October 2008."

The issue is that while there's a case to be made for tariffs as part of the toolkit for reindustrialization, there needs to be long-term predictability. Right now producers are paying the tariffs but they can't have a reasonable assurance that the regime will last for long enough (or what it will be) for them to plan to invest in the US to compensate. So we are getting the worst of both worlds. Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, a global logistics software company, recently tweeted: "Two of our American customers devastated by the tariffs gave up and sold themselves to their Chinese factories in the last week."

Surely this is not what we want.

Policy News You Need To Know

#Healthcare — Wow: Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders signed a first-in-the-nation law forcing PBMs to divest from pharmacies. Republicans have contemplated some form of this reform for a while now as a way to reduce costs in the healthcare sector. It's also an evolution to a Republican Party that's more willing to take an activist role against business (although Arkansas has its own populist tradition). It will be interesting to see if there's a followup in Congress.

#FamilyPolicy — Yes, it's another state law, but another interesting one with potential national implications, as EPPC's Patrick Brown writes: there is a bill pending in Oregon that would essentially allow child care centers to open by right in residential areas.

#K12 — Very useful and very impressive: Heritage has created a database of all classical schools nationwide.

#Tariffs — Here's a useful item from American Action Forum's Trade Policy Analyst Jacob Jensen analyzing the costs of the sector-specific tariffs.

#Internet — Here's a worthy analysis of the TAKE IT DOWN Act (all caps because, hilariously, all those letters are actually an acronym), a worthy initiative against bullying spearheaded by the First Lady, but with some First Amendment and privacy concerns.

#Budget — Here's R Street's Nan Swift with some words of wisdom about the recent announcement of a so-called trillion-dollar budget for the Pentagon.

Easter Essays

Not an essay, but Ross Douthat appeared on Bari Weiss's podcast to make the case for why you should believe in God. He did write an Easter essay, however, a few years ago, arguing for a more "naive" reading of the Gospels.

In First Things, Charlotte Allen goes over the evidence for the historicity of John's Gospel, the one that historians usually find hardest to vindicate. "In March, a team of archaeologists excavating beneath Jerusalem’s Church of the Holy Sepulcher announced a new finding: ancient pollen and other botanical evidence indicating a garden had been there two thousand years ago. The finding corroborates John’s account of Jesus’s passion and death."

In The Public Discourse, Paul R. DeHart, drawing on the theology of NT Wright, challenges the idea that Christians should only be Christian between Good Friday and Easter.

At The Imaginative Conservative, Father Dwight Longenecker reviews the evidence that the Resurrection was a literal, historical event.

Still at The Imaginative Conservative, the poet Malcolm Guite offers us a sonnet about the mystery of Maundy Thursday.

And if we may be so bold, here are some reflections by yours truly on Good Friday and Easter.