Of note: this will be the last regular PolicySphere Morning Briefing this year. Merry Christmas! See you next year.

Most people in professional politics Washington do not want to see a shutdown. In general, they think it's stupid. Furthermore, Democrats oppose shutting the government on ideological grounds, and Republicans fear (with some justification) that voters will blame them for a shutdown. So even as we write, with a deadline looming and seemingly very little hope of solving the very complicated equation of passing something that can satisfy President-elect Trump, conservative Republicans, and Democrats, they are trying. They may well succeed. But out of sheer contrarianism we want to make the case for.

Nobody in the real world cares. This is something that may be obscured in the drama. But, as we all know, a "government shutdown" is not actually a shutdown of the Federal government. "Essential" functions are maintained. (By what legal writ? Who knows.) But the more we go through the motions of this brinkmanship and shutdown, the more it begins to take on a kabuki air. And if that is true inside DC, imagine how much more true it is outside America. All over America, millions of people will fly home to the holidays without trouble, as the TSA workers groping them and the air traffic controllers guiding their planes keep working because they are "essential". How many of them will even think about the shutdown as they see their families? How many of them will discuss it with their families? Not many. So, in the grand scheme of things, it's not the biggest thing in the world.

The election is over. Republicans fear the political blowback from shutting down the government. But, if anything, a lame duck session right after a Presidential is the best time for shutting down the government: the next election is in two full years! And you can be sure that much more Trumpian drama will ensue, so that by the time voters are ready to make a decision about you, they'll have forgotten all about shutdown number 374.

Getting a debt ceiling increase is worth pain, especially now. The one policy that President-elect Trump is insisting on is also the best one: postponing, or even abolishing altogether, the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling has always been a bad idea: if lawmakers want to stop the debt, they can just pass a budget that stops it; the idea that they should have a second legislative debate and vote to agree to increase the debt to the level that they have already voted for makes no sense. Conservative proponents of the debt ceiling argue that it forces spending cuts: but historically, that's just not been true. As a Hill insider texted us earlier this morning, "the bond market will decide when we cut spending." More prosaically, passing the debt ceiling increase now avoids further polluting the work of the incoming Administration by clearing a mine. Donald J. Trump was elected President of the United States. He should be able to run the executive branch and he should get, at the very least, a fair hearing from Republicans in Congress, not arbitrary roadblocks. Policy disagreements are good, but debt ceiling fights are not policy disagreements, they are theater, and given what the next four years are likely to be like, we should seek to remove theater, not add to it.

Our money is on the government shutting down tonight, and then the Sun rising again tomorrow.

Policy News You Need To Know

#Immigration — AP: "Immigration drives US population growth to highest rate in 23 years as residents pass 340 million"

#Immigration — Speaking of, Donald Trump has filed an amicus brief in a Texas court as part of a lawsuit to stop the Biden Administration to stop selling off border wall materials, the Daily Wire reports. The Biden Administration so strongly believes in open borders that even after losing an election over it they are engaging in sabotage to prevent the rebuilding of the border barrier. Astonishing.

#Immigration — Speaking of, NBC News has a report about the cost and logistical complexity involved in catching and detaining illegal immigrants. Let's get the obvious out of the way first: of course, the report is biased. And Republicans believe they can enforce laws against illegal immigrants with less fuss than immigrationists believe because if they turn off the incentives attracting immigrants, such as payouts, sanctuary cities, employment, and so on, many will self-deport. That is surely true, to an extent. But only to an extent. Mat Homan and co have their work cut out for them.

#Debanking — Just in case you were wondering about the allegations around debanking of cryptocurrency companies, the AIMA, the hedge fund industry's professional association, released a very telling survey: "75% of crypto hedge fund firms reported issues with accessing or growing banking services for their funds and 67% reported issues with accessing or growing banking services for the investment manager, compared to none of the traditional alternative investment managers surveyed." 75% versus none. That's pretty clear-cut. The survey makes it clear that they are referring to "basic cash management services, such as access to checking accounts used for vendor payments, rent, and salaries."

#IndustrialPolicy — Todd Young of Indiana and Mark Kelly of Arizona have introduced what they called the SHIPS Act (get it, like the CHIPS Act?) to tackle a very real problem, which is America's declining shipbuilding capacity.

#Doxxing — You may or may not have heard of Nick Fuentes, a white nationalist and anti-semitic social media personality. Anyway, he was recently doxxed, and as a result, an armed assailant tried to murder him. This is First Amendment 101: you don't have to agree with Fuentes, or like him, to agree that that is unacceptable in America. You should read our case for a Federal Anti-Doxxing Statute here.

#Energy #AmericanManufacturing — The Institute for Energy Research has a very good report on why the idea of a comprehensive switch to electric vehicles, complete with mandates, would be a very difficult thing to do indeed, with lots of bad consequences.

#Copyright — R Street's Canyon Brimhall brings our attention to a little-noticed piece of pending legislation, the Pro Codes Act, which would "allow standards development organizations (SDOs)—creators of building codes, fire codes, electrical codes, and the like—to copyright these codes even after they are incorporated into the law. This would give SDOs monopoly control over access to and distribution of the codes." If you think that sounds like a crazy idea, you would be right. "In addition to the obvious monopoly rents, any attempt by third parties to republish, summarize, index, or otherwise simplify access to these standards could be subject to legal challenge, with fines or other penalties imposed on the defendants. For example, if a software developer were to compile building codes from federal, state, and local sources and then offer a compliance tool based on that data, SDOs could sue the developer and persuade courts to shut the service down, harming both the service provider and its intended audience." More to the point, building codes and the like are part of the law. The idea that a private entity could copyright the text of the law is patently absurd.

#WokeRight — You may or may not have heard the term "woke right." This is a term of abuse which is primarily used by liberals who have in some sense joined the right because of a rejection of wokeness, but remain otherwise liberal, to denigrate people to their right. Claremont's Jeremy Carl explains why that term is silly, as well as the critique it contains.