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The PolicySphere Briefing is brought to you by Baron Public Affairs
Baron Public Affairs and PolicySphere have cooperated on a series of articles on the upcoming EU directive CS3D:
"Understanding CS3D: The New EU Law That Could Cost U.S. Industry Trillions"
"CS3D Is Just One Way In Which Europe Exploits American Economic Vitality"
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DON'T MISS: Opinion: If We Don't Change Our Regulatory System, We Won't Be Able To Produce The Energy The AI Revolution Needs — New guest article by Josiah Neeley of R Street Institute
The Chyna Deal
Obviously we have to talk about the Chyna Deal.
To be clear, it is not "the" deal, it is essentially a one-year ceasefire that will continue while "the" deal is being negotiated.
The groundwork for this deal was laid over the weekend of October 26-27, 2025, when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and top trade negotiator Li Chenggang in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. These talks represented the fifth round of in-person discussions between the two sides, following previous meetings in Geneva (May), London (June), Stockholm (July), and Madrid (September) earlier in 2025.
The framework agreement set the stage for today's landmark face-to-face meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea. The meeting lasted only around 90 minutes.
Trump rated the meeting "a 12" on a scale of zero to 10 and called it an "amazing meeting" and "great success."
Anyway, with all these caveats, here's what's been published:
Tariffs: US average tariff on Chinese goods cut to 47% by reducing the fentanyl-related surcharge to 10% from 20%.
Rare earths: China suspends for one year the Oct 9 expansion of its rare-earth export controls; earlier controls remain.
Agriculture: China to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans “this season” and 25 million t/year for the next three years.
Maritime/port fees: Both sides to pause tit-for-tat port fees for one year.
US enforcement pauses: US to suspend for one year a planned rule expanding export-control reach to subsidiaries and to pause a shipbuilding probe; China’s readout framed these as U.S. steps linked to the truce.
TikTok: China signaled willingness to “properly resolve” the app’s ownership issue; U.S. officials said China approved a path toward U.S.-controlled ownership, but no closing yet.
Energy: Trump said China would begin processes to buy U.S. oil and LNG, including interest tied to Alaska LNG; details pending.
Chips: No rollback of U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductors; Nvidia’s top chips remain off-limits.
Good breather.
Keep trusting the plan…
Policy News You Need To Know
The PolicySphere Briefing is brought to you by Baron Public Affairs
Baron Public Affairs and PolicySphere have cooperated on a series of articles on the upcoming EU directive CS3D:
"Understanding CS3D: The New EU Law That Could Cost U.S. Industry Trillions"
"CS3D Is Just One Way In Which Europe Exploits American Economic Vitality"
#LawAndOrder — Leaked Pentagon memo orders National Guard to prepare a quick reaction force of troops in each state to be operational by January 1st of next year.
#PresidentialAuthority — The good folks at the Claremont Institute have filed a compelling amicus brief in Trump v. Slaughter, endorsing overturning "Humphrey's Executor", the (in)famous Supreme Court precedent that prevents the President from removing members of so-called independent agencies. The brief correctly identifies that for-cause removal protections prevent the President from faithfully executing the laws when commissioners become defiant or pursue agendas inconsistent with the current administration's constitutional mandate.
#Crypto — The great David Beckworth, senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center and former international economist at the U.S. Treasury, has an interesting article analyzing the implications of recent stablecoin regulatory developments for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and fiscal independence. Following the passage of the GENIUS Act and Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller's October announcement exploring "skinny master accounts" for stablecoin custodians, Beckworth identifies two critical structural effects: first, the displacement of physical currency by digital stablecoins threatens to erode the Fed's zero-cost "currency franchise," potentially reducing cumulative Federal Reserve net income by $1.5 to $2.5 trillion through 2055 and raising questions about the central bank's operational independence, a concern already manifested in Sweden's Riksbank experience; second, expanding stablecoin adoption, particularly from foreign users seeking dollar-denominated payment networks, will structurally increase demand for Fed liabilities and likely necessitate balance sheet expansion, effectively positioning the Federal Reserve as an increasingly central safe-asset intermediary in global dollar flows. Beckworth argues these developments mark a fundamental shift in monetary architecture that Republican policymakers should monitor closely, with implications for Fed independence, balance sheet management, and the evolving public-private boundary in dollar-based payment systems.
#Ag — The guys at EPIC have a good report on the various agriculture appropriations bills kicking around in the House and the Senate, comparing them to FY2025 levels and the President's Budget. The House proposes $25.5 billion in total spending, a reduction of $1.1 billion below the current FY 2025 enacted level of $26.6 billion. In contrast, the Senate advances $27.1 billion, representing a $500 million increase over current spending and a $1.6 billion premium above the House position. The bills mostly diverge on three issues. First, as noted, outlays. Second, workforce management: the House supports reducing Federal staffing at agencies where 49% of USDA employees (42,256 workers) were recently classified as non-essential, while the Senate maintains current staffing levels and opposes hiring restrictions at the FDA. Third, on program priorities: the House significantly cuts or eliminates funding for problematic programs like Food for Peace Title II foreign food aid and Conservation Technical Assistance services for private landowners, whereas the Senate keeps most programs funded at current levels.
#IndustrialPolicy — In an effort to move away from reliance on foreign fertilizer, DOE extended a $1.5 billion loan to a coal powered ammonia gas plant. This is the second loan given out as a result of the OBBBA Energy Dominance Financing Program.
#Trade #Cartels — DOT halts Mexico cargo carrier flights into the US as a retaliatory measure. In 2022 Mexico halted US Carrier flights into Mexico and has yet to resume them violating the 2015 US-Mexico Air Transport Agreement.
#Security — Manager at L3Harris found guilty of selling cyber-exploit components to a Russian broker.
#Tax — The National Taxpayers Union has published its annual "No Brainers List" of "top 10 bipartisan bills for taxpayers."
#Tax — Speaking of, the good folks at the Tax Foundation have released their 2026 State Tax Competitiveness Index, ranking all 50 states and the District on their, believe it or not, tax competitiveness.
#Shutdown — The good folks at the Bipartisan Policy Center have a useful, self-explanatory explainer on: "Who Is Missing Paychecks in the 2025 Shutdown—When and Where?"
The PolicySphere Briefing is brought to you by Baron Public Affairs
Baron Public Affairs and PolicySphere have cooperated on a series of articles on the upcoming EU directive CS3D:
"Understanding CS3D: The New EU Law That Could Cost U.S. Industry Trillions"
"CS3D Is Just One Way In Which Europe Exploits American Economic Vitality"
Chart of the Day
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