New York has begun voting. Jeremiah Johnson, founder of the New Liberals organization, points out that Andrew Cuomo appears relatively stronger among native New Yorkers, lower-income voters, and tenants in public or rent-controlled units; meanwhile, Zohran Mamdani does relatively better with transplants, higher income brackets and market‐rate renters.

This confirms that Mamdani's coalition is the coalition of the downwardly-mobile elite.

These are people who may once have perceived themselves as destined for home-ownership or upward mobility but now find themselves squeezed in expensive urban housing markets and feel left behind, even though they have accumulated elite or pseudo-elite credentials.

What makes the “downwardly-mobile elite” phrase so useful is that it helps locate this coalition structurally: educated, often college-graduates, possibly with higher income than typical renters, but living in high cost cities, renting market units, watching the rent go up, comparing themselves to those who own property. The poll shows Mamdani doing better among “4-year college+” renters and market‐rate renters and among those born outside NYC. This is not the a low-income working-class base.

Mamdani’s appeal in New York may demonstrate what we will call “urban renter‐progressivism.” A progressivism whose economic appeal is based on anti-rich resentment and bad economic policy targeted at them, and which proudly embraces the chic cultural notions of the educated class.

If Mamdani is the future of the Democratic Party—which many people believe, including your correspondent—this is good news for the Republicans.

The Mamdani is the same temptation that bedevilled the McGovern Democrats and tricked the Obama Democrats. The delusion that the Democrats have been operating under since the era of the New Left is that they can build a majority from cultural elites, disaffected minorities, and the very poor. This delusion caused the Nixon and Reagan landslides, until Bill Clinton recented the Democrats on trying to build a broad working and middle-class coalition. Some called Obama "McGovern's Revenge" but his successes depended on unprecedented levels of minority turnout, which were driven by the historic nature of his candidacy and also, eventually, a large amount of race-baiting, which in many ways led to the rise of Donald Trump and where we are now.

In 2024, Donald Trump managed to build a broad, multiracial, working and middle-class coalition. If Democrats go the Mamdani route, the future is bright for Republicans.

Policy News You Need To Know

#DropTheNuke — President Trump has once again posted about ending the filibuster, and Vice President Vance has reposted him.

PREVIOUSLY: Our editorial supporting ending the filibuster.

#FamilyPolicy — Very cool: we welcome the launch of the new newsletter "The Third Oikos," a newsletter edited by Nicole Ruiz and supported by the Institute for Family Studies and the Foundation for American Innovation, on the theme of "how technology is reshaping the household."

#SaveCalifornia — Speaking of new content, friends of the Sphere have launched a new outlet, "The Magpie Flyer," which is dedicated to covering California news from a right-of-center perspective, and have fun while doing it. If that's something you're at all interested in, we recommend keeping them on your radar.

#Obamacare — Very important piece from Allysia Finley at the Journal: she argues that extending the enhanced ACA subsidies amounts to a stealth bailout of blue-city governments. She shows how cities like Chicago, Detroit, and Stockton shifted costly retiree health plans onto federal exchanges to slash local liabilities, effectively transferring billions in obligations to US taxpayers. With pandemic-era subsidies making Obamacare plans cheaper even for well-pensioned retirees, Finley warns that Democrats’ push to extend them will encourage more municipalities to offload their retirement burdens instead of reforming spending. The result, she cautions, will be an older, sicker insurance pool and rising federal costs. Sounds like something we shouldn't allow to happen.

#AI #AmericanManufacturing — Microsoft has announced a $15.2 billion investment in the United Arab Emirates, aimed at expanding AI data centers and cloud infrastructure; this is a follow-on on a previously-announced deal in 2023. The deal includes US government-approved exports of advanced Nvidia AI chips, such as the accumulation of 21,500 A100 GPU equivalents under the Biden administration and a recent Trump White House clearance for 60,400 more equivalents, including cutting-edge GB300 GPUs, to be deployed in Microsoft's UAE data centers. House Select Committee on China Chairman John Moolenaar has voiced significant concerns, highlighting the UAE's close technology partnership with China. Moolenaar emphasized that while he welcomes US-UAE tech collaboration, it must be contingent on the UAE verifiably and irreversibly aligning with American interests to prevent technology leakage to adversaries. Worth keeping an eye on.

#Conservatism — Mike Pence has written a book on the recurring chestnut of "what it means to be a conservative." At the Washington Post, Dominic Pino interviews him about it. Pence defines it as rooted in three enduring principles: free markets, traditional social values grounded in faith, and a strong national defense. Pence argues that conservatism is a moral and philosophical commitment to limited government, individual liberty, and adherence to “the laws of God and of nature.” He contrasts these ideals with what he views as deviations under President Trump’s leadership, such as tariffs and expanded federal control. People will keep having this debate.

#Immigration — Absolutely enraging. Reports CIS: new data show that during the first two years of the Biden admininstration, HHS lost contact and could not determine the safety status of 48% of all unaccompanied alien children after transferring the children into the custody of a “sponsor”.

#Immigration — The good folks at the Immigration Accountability Project have launched what they call "the first ever" Congressional Immigration Rankings system. It ranks every Member of Congress based on the immigration bills they have sponsored, cosponsored, and voted for or against. Scores are updated at the end of every week.

#NuclearTests — President Trump's decision to resume nuclear testing has created some controversy, particularly with regard to the idea that other countries (except North Korea) have stopped testing. On 60 Minutes, President Trump alleged that countries like China, Russia, and Pakistan are conducting secret tests. So we'll highlight this statement from Tom Cotton, who is of course the Chair of the Intelligence Committee: "After consultations with Director Ratcliffe and his team, they have confirmed to me that the CIA assesses that both Russia and China have conducted super-critical nuclear weapons tests in excess of the U.S. zero-yield standard. These tests are not historic and are part of their nuclear modernization programs."

#QuantumComputing — DOE announced $625 million to renew its five National Quantum Information Science Research Centers, originally created under the Trump administration’s 2018 National Quantum Initiative Act. The funding will support up to five years of work across DOE national laboratories. The renewed centers will focus on scaling quantum hardware, developing algorithms, and applying quantum systems to defense and scientific challenges. News keeps coming in on advances in quantum computing, so stuff like that is worth keeping an eye on.