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President Trump has announced the dismissals of the Board of Visitors for the military academies of the Army (West Point), Air Force, Navy and Coast Guard, writing "Our Service Academies have been infiltrated by Woke Leftist Ideologues over the last four years."
This is symptomatic of a broader vibe shift, but we don't mean the cultural vibe shift away from "woke".
We mean the vibe shift inside the Republican Party to a greater awareness that personnel matters, and that having the right people in control of the levers of state is a prerequisite to carrying out good policy and heading off political defeat. Throughout the post-War Era, Republican Administrations appointed more Democrats than the reverse.
This was not, or not primarily, due to a greater respect for partisanship, it was simply due to a lack of qualified people. The Bench Problem. Is this fixed? Two big things have changed in the past 8 years, on top of this greater awareness: the rise of young people through the institutions of the Right, and the arrival of talent from Silicon Valley as part of the "tech right," which is also represented by DOGE.
This is a much more important vibe shift than even the vibe shift away from woke.
Policy News You Need To Know
#VibeShift — Speaking of, many have feared that the embrace of the Trump Administration by tech would mean the end of New Right-ish ideas about bringing Big Tech to heel. But there are many "techs", and famously, Marc Andreessen drew the distinction between "Big Tech", platforms which are quasi (or outright) monopolistic, and "Little Tech," the economy of entrepreneurial breakthrough creation. What's bad for Big Tech might be good for Little Tech and vice versa. That's the philosophy. But policy is personnel. In our unscientific estimation, both "Silicon Valley" and the New Right have done well out of the Transition, and today Axios reports that "the Federal Trade Commission under President Trump is beefing up its staff with a string of new hires who are skeptical of Big Tech."
#VibeShift — Another vibe shift, outside the government this time: President Trump is posting the highest job approval numbers of his life in politics. But what is most striking, as Nate Hochman of America 2100 points out, is the generational breakdown. "Boomers are 50/50. Millennials are +4. Gen Z is +10." Talk about a vibe shift.
#Tax — The wrangling about tax continues. The White House has announced the following priorities on tax cuts: no tax on tips, Social Security, or overtime pay; the renewal of the 2017 tax cuts; an "adjustment" to the SALT cap, the end of tax breaks for "billionaire sports team owners" (sports team owners can deduct intangible assets linked to the purchase of a sports team such as player contracts, broadcasting rights, and goodwill, if they amortize them over 15 years), and closing the carried interest tax deduction loophole. According to the Tax Foundation, this adds up to: $4.2 trillion to make TCJA permanent; $2.1 trillion for no tax on tips, Social Security, and overtime; and $200 billion to $1 trillion depending on when the SALT cap lands. The loophole closures, while desirable, are a small part of that.
#DOGE — We're not going to comment on the legality of DOGE's actions or the (seemingly absurd and nakedly partisan) court decision that has frozen some DOGE actions, or the potential ramifications. What we will comment on is what DOGE has exposed in terms of seeming incompetence (at best) at the heart of the Federal government. Here's what Elon Musk disclosed: outgoing Treasury payments are supposed to have a payment categorization code, "which is necessary in order to pass financial audits. This is frequently left blank, making audits almost impossible." Payments also have a comment field, but this is "currently left blank." Adds Musk: "Importantly, we are not yet applying ANY judgment to this rationale, but simply requiring that SOME attempt be made to explain the payment more than NOTHING!" Incompetence is the most generous explanation.
#Incentives — According to a new NBER paper, the Biden-era student-loan forgiveness increased indebtedness, decreased borrowers' monthly earnings and employment. Turns out if you reward irresponsible behavior, you get more of it!
#Trade — President Donald Trump said he will announce 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum, Bloomberg reports, and he is planning further tariff announcements this week.
#NIH — Did you know with every grant the NIH disburses it adds a 60% "overhead" bonus? We did not. NIH is reducing this to 15%. This has caused much screaming on the internet. It's obvious that a research lab has significant overhead, but a systematic 60% surcharge is obviously bogus. Remember our key proposal on the NIH.
#EVs — Porsche has announced a strategic shift back to internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid vehicle development, investing €800 million ($831 million) in 2025 on ICE technology. This comes as European carmakers keep angrily telling the European Commission that its EV mandates are simply not feasible. The fact that the EV mandate is going out of the window in the US is also a factor. As is, perhaps, the fact that BYD is increasingly flooding the world with its cheap (but, apparently, good-enough) Tesla knockoffs. Are we witnessing a global shift away from EVs? The EV industry has managed to create an air of inevitability around the technology, but, while battery technology is much-improved, EVs are still less convenient than ICEs for may tasks, and the industry is still heavily dependent on policy choices.
Chart of the Day
Net migration to Canada. Speaks for itself… (Via Emil Kirkegaard)