Another stark statistic people have been citing from the Mamdani election exit polls: his enormous lead among young women.

And, of course, gender polarization is a well-trod issue. Among voters aged 18-29, women lean substantially more Democratic than men: for example a Harvard youth poll found that among that age group women favoured the Democratic candidate by 33 points whereas men’s margin was only about 6 points. It's not just a gender gap, but a generational gender gap: young women increasingly adopt liberal political identities and policy preferences.

What's a bit frustrating is seeing so many commentators say that the GOP "needs to address this" or "needs to have an answer" as if there isn't already one that has been well-talked about and well-trod.

All the way back in 2005, Steve Sailer pointed out facts and outlined ideas which have since then been dubbed the "Sailer Strategy": the idea is very: since people tend to shift toward the Republican Party when they marry and have children then a political strategy aimed at emphasising pro-family policies (marriage incentives, child-friendly tax policy, social supports for stable households) could widen the Republican electoral coalition over time.

The observation that married people with kids trend Republican while unmarried women trend progressive has held over decades. The Institute for Family Studies has recently published research showing that the link between family formation and political orientation is strengthening. Similarly, a Gallup study shows that marriage became a partisan issue: Republicans have higher marriage rates than Democrats and the gap remains after controlling for age, gender, education and race.

The flywheel is obvious and intuitive: more incentives for marriage, childbearing, and family stability leads to more families leads to more Republican votes leads to more political capital for pro-family policies leads to…

We can't prove it, but it seems obvious to your correspondent that the progressive political and cultural values proclaimed by so many young women today are simply a psychological consequence of the decline of marriage and more generally of happy relationships and dating, and that if more women got married and have kids they would jettison their progressive beliefs over time.

Policy News You Need To Know

#GLPs — Trump today announced a landmark agreement with pharmaceutical manufacturers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to reduce the cost of GLP-1 drugs and expand coverage under Medicare and other public insurance programs. Under the deal, drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound,previously costing more than $1,000 per month, will be available at a government‐negotiated price of $245 per month for Medicare and Medicaid, enabling beneficiaries to pay just a $50 copay. In return, the drugmakers receive expedited regulatory review and tariff relief, and the new TrumpRx platform will offer non-insured patients these drugs at around $350 per month, with oral versions of GLP-1s launching at $150 per month once approved. The policy mechanism combines government negotiation of a “most-favoured-nation” benchmark and expanded insurance eligibility (for those with obesity, pre-diabetes or heart disease) to broaden access. Tens of millions of Americans previously unable to afford these treatments now stand to gain access under Medicare expansion. Major win which we have advocated for, as you know, for months.

#ItsTheEconomyStupid — US companies announced the highest number of job cuts for any October in over twenty years. Cited reasons include mounting pressures from rapid AI adoption, weakening consumer demand, and persistent inflation. Not good...

#Reg — A recent American Action Forum report discusses bipartisan opposition to the EPA’s proposal to repeal the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), a move that would eliminate most emissions reporting requirements except those tied to a future methane tax. While the rule aligns with the Trump Administration’s pro-energy agenda, it raises concerns among both Republican and Democratic lawmakers about data gaps that could hinder tax credit verification and disadvantage US exporters under foreign carbon border taxes.

#Budget — A number of taxpayer orgs, from both sides of the aisle, have published a letter against a further increase to the Pentagon budget.

#AmericanManufacturing — Senator Todd Young of Indiana has published a piece in the Ripon Forum about his SHIPS for America Act, co-sponsored with Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, designed to revitalize U.S. shipyards, rebuild industrial capacity, and train a new maritime workforce. The bill complements President Trump’s “Restoring America’s Maritime Dominance” executive order, providing funding and authorities to strengthen domestic shipbuilding and counter China’s strategic control of global shipping. Good legislation worth supporting.

#LifeIsStrange — Funny NBER paper of the day: pollen increases 911 calls.

#EndOfAnEra — Generational talent stock trader and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is retiring at 85 years old.

#Shutdown — FAA will be reducing flights in high volume markets due to air traffic controller strain amidst the shutdown.

#HighSkilledImmigration — Kansas Mayor charged with six felonies after voting without being a citizen.

#Brouhaha — You should read Chris Rufo on the brouhaha concerning Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes.