As of April 2025, the U.S. government collected $15.9 billion in tariff revenue for the month, a sharp increase from $9.6 billion in March, following the implementation of President Trump’s new tariffs. For the remainder of 2025, estimates suggest total tariff revenue could reach between $100 billion and $200 billion if the tariffs remain in place.

The actual monthly collections in April 2025 ($15.9 billion) are consistent with the lower end of annual projections ($100–$200 billion for the rest of 2025). This suggests the tariffs are generating substantial revenue, but not at the levels projected by the Trump administration’s most optimistic forecasts (which claimed $6–$7 trillion over a decade). Most independent estimates ($2–$5 trillion) are significantly below the administration’s $6–$7 trillion claim. The differences depend on whether models account for economic effects, behavioral changes, and retaliation.

In other words, what we're seeing—if those tariffs stick, which of course we can't know—is that while the Trump Administration's most optimistic goals were far-fetched, they were right to say that tariffs would raise significant revenue. It will remain to be seen whether tariffs end up in the reconciliation bill.

Policy News You Need To Know

#Life — Jamie Bryan Hall and Ryan T. Anderson of EPPC have conducted the largest known study of the abortion pill, "based on analysis of data from an all-payer insurance claims database that includes 865,727 prescribed mifepristone abortions from 2017 to 2023," and the results ought to give pause to anyone. "10.93 percent of women experience sepsis, infection, hemorrhaging, or another serious adverse event within 45 days following a mifepristone abortion." In other words, "The real-world rate of serious adverse events following mifepristone abortions is at least 22 times as high as the summary figure of 'less than 0.5 percent' in clinical trials reported on the drug label." This is a bombshell. The authors call on the FDA to "immediately reinstate its earlier, stronger patient safety protocols to ensure physician responsibility for women who take mifepristone under their care, as well as mandate full reporting of its side effects" and "further investigate the harm mifepristone causes to women and, based on objective safety criteria, reconsider its approval altogether."

#MAGA — Heritage has put out a website, titled "America's Back," listing "100 Wins in 100 Days" of the Trump Administration.

#Budget — House and Senate Armed Services Republicans have released text of their $150B defense spending hike as part of the reconciliation bill. The biggest new line items have to do with shipbuilding and AI (and AI-optimized shipbuilding) which are a big new priority.

#AI — 25% of community college applicants in California are now AI bots. Scammers enroll the bots in online courses long enough to get money from the Pell Grant system. (Source)

#Veterans — One topic on which RAND does excellent, thorough research is veterans' issues. In this report, RAND researchers oversaw and evaluated 307 veteran suicide prevention programs to try to find out which ones were effective and suss out some recommendations. "The following activity types have a robust evidence base for preventing suicide: community-based suicide prevention initiatives, suicide risk assessment, noncrisis psychological treatment, crisis psychological clinical services, and pharmacotherapy (for those with mental health conditions)." Important work.

#Energy — Quote of the day, from a FT piece on Germany's energy disaster, which is the blueprint for the energy policies favored by the left: "electricity bills were paradoxically higher in regions that had a lot of cheap renewable energy." Paradoxically, indeed.

#FinReg — R Street's C. Jarrett Dieterle is in Discourse magazine breaking down the implications of the very welcome demise of the Biden-era CTA rules.

#Immigration — "Almost 800 illegal aliens arrested in large-scale ICE operation in Florida." Looks like domestic enforcement is ramping up somewhat more slowly than many were expecting, but is ramping up.

#Housing — RAND: "Building multifamily housing in California is more than twice as expensive as it is in Texas. Much of the difference is driven by state and local policies that contribute to long permitting and construction timelines and higher local development fees." Sure, you already knew that, but there's more in their report on the cost of building housing in California.