Given the constant noise around tariffs, we wanted to take a little bit of a breath and try to figure out where we are.

So here, as best as we can tell, is where we are right now.

The Trump Administration's 2025 tariff campaign began on February 1 when President Trump announced broad tariffs on multiple trading partners. These included 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports, with the China tariffs taking effect immediately on February 4. However, the tariffs on Canada and Mexico are suspended until April 2, as a deadline on negotiations with Canada and Mexico.

Meanwhile, on February 10, President Trump signed proclamations expanding the existing Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. These expanded measures included ending all existing country exemptions, expanding the list of derivative articles subject to tariffs, and raising the tariff rate on aluminum from 10% to 25%. These changes took effect on March 12, 2025.

Yesterday, President Trump announced perhaps his most consequential tariff action to date: a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and automobile parts. The automotive tariffs will impact passenger vehicles (sedans, SUVs, crossovers, minivans, cargo vans) and light trucks, as well as key automobile parts including engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components. They will primarily affect Mexico (the leading supplier of cars to the US), Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Germany, which collectively represent approximately 75% of vehicle imports to the United States.

However, the tariffs on complete vehicles will only take effect on April 3, while the tariffs on auto parts will follow on May 3. So this may be another gambit.

When it comes to the April 2 deadline, here's where we stand.

On February 13, 2025, the Administration decreed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs." These tariffs, scheduled to begin on April 2, will target countries that impose their own import duties on US products or engage in what the administration considers unfair trade practices. The Trump administration directed the development of a comprehensive plan for these tariffs due by April 1, with implementation the following day. Several product categories have been identified for tariffs beginning April 2. On March 3, President Trump announced that tariffs on "external" agricultural products would commence on April 2. Additionally, tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which Trump mentioned on January 27 and February 18, are expected to start at "25% and higher" with indications they will "go very substantially higher over the course of a year".

In that bucket, President Trump signed an executive order granting the Secretary of State discretion to impose a 25% tariff on imports from any country that directly or indirectly purchases Venezuelan oil. These tariffs are set to take effect on April 2, unless terminated earlier.

Finally, President Trump has stated his intent to impose 25% tariffs on imports from the European Union, plus a threat of 200% tariffs specifically on US alcohol.

So that's all that's either going to happen, or be resolved in some way by some "deal" by and around April 2.

In addition, there are several ongoing investigations that could lead to increased tariffs: a Section 232 national security investigation into copper imports, with findings due in November; a Section 232 investigation into timber, lumber, and derivative imports, also due November, and a Section 302 investigation into Digital Service Taxes, particularly targeting France, Austria, Italy, Spain, Turkey, and the UK.

Exciting times!

Policy News You Need To Know

#Tariffs — Speaking of, Human Events reports, citing Indian government sources, that India is considering "reducing tariffs on 55% of U.S. goods it imports that are now subject to tariffs ranging from 5% to 30%," and also "substantially lower[ing] or even scrapp[ing] entirely" tariffs on imports worth over $23 billion.

#FreeSpeech — Yesterday we reported on the fact that Ryan T. Anderson's book "When Harry Became Sally" had been, again, delisted by Amazon, without any explanation, again. And it's back now. Which is good news, except that, as Anderson xeeted, "I’ve heard nothing directly from Amazon."

#Immigration — Tucker Carlson has unearthed a provision in US law that allows citizens to vote. To be fair, the exception is pretty narrowly drawn. 18 U.S. Code § 611 outlines that non-citizens who vote in federal elections may face fines and imprisonment. Nonetheless, subsection (c) of this statute provides an exception for individuals who: had both parents (natural or adoptive) as U.S. citizens; permanently resided in the United States before turning 16; and reasonably believed they were U.S. citizens at the time of voting. At the same time, given the sacred nature of the vote and the current controversies, it may be prudent to repeal this provision.

#Health — We recently reported on how China is producing innovative new drugs at an alarming clip. A big problem is the FDA's bottleneck. Which is why we were very interested in this new Manhattan Institute issue brief that provides a politically realistic possibility: using real-world data as well as clinical trials to review drugs.

#StudentLoans — AEI's Preston Cooper is doing great work covering the slow-moving trainwreck of the end of student loan payment suspension. Less than half of student borrowers are paying their loans.

#Robots #Globalization — Factoid we did not expect to read today: thanks to automation and globalization, China has lost more than 7 million manufacturing jobs since 2011, the FT reports.

#PublicHealth — RFK wants to ban high fructose corn syrup. There is at this point very convincing evidence that high fructose corn syrup is a particularly addictive and toxic form of sugar and that it's a contributor to America's obesity epidemic. However, at The Daily Economy, Fabian Wintersberger suggests a different idea. One both full of sense and politically more dificult: eliminate sugar tariffs while ending corn subsidies.

#Science — JP Morgan says it has managed to generate truly random numbers using quantum computing, according to Bloomberg. Generating random numbers—truly random numbers, where there exists no pattern or algorithm that can predict the next number in the sequence—is one of the hardest problems in mathematics and computer science. And it is a problem with very real and practical applications since scrambling sequences of numbers is the basis of cryptography, which is necessary for national security, and also all of modern life (think for a minute of everything you own that is digitally encrypted on some server on the internet). A message encrypted with truly random numbers would be unbreakable—not just very very hard to break, as every other cryptographic method thus far invented, but absolutely, mathematically, by definition, unbreakable.

#Tax — Cato's Adam Michel is doing his yearly "tax expenditure madness" tournament. It's pretty fun. And may cause you to tear out a couple fistfuls of hair.