Alex Brill, Kyle Pomerleau and Stan Veuger at AEI have a helpful overview of the Presidential candidates' child credit expansions, and their budget impact.

The Trump-Vance campaign proposes a universal $5,000 credit per child under 18, fully refundable with no income-based phaseouts. This plan would cost approximately $3.6 trillion from 2026 to 2035 compared to current law. The Harris-Walz campaign offers a tiered approach: $3,000 for children 6-17, $3,600 for children 1-5, and $6,000 for infants, with benefits phasing out for higher-income households.

Both proposals would significantly increase support for low-income families compared to current policy. The Trump-Vance plan would boost after-tax income for the bottom 20% of households by 7.6%, while the Harris-Walz plan would increase it by 4.8%. However, the Trump-Vance proposal offers more generous benefits to high-income households due to its universal nature.

The proposals could impact workforce participation differently. The Harris-Walz plan might reduce labor supply by approximately 210,000 full-time-equivalent jobs, while the Trump-Vance proposal's impact would be less severe at 113,750 fewer jobs. In contrast, extending the current policy would slightly increase labor supply by 21,500 jobs.

Given the nation's fiscal outlook, the authors suggest that lawmakers might be better served focusing on whether to maintain the current $2,000 credit or return to the pre-TCJA $1,000 credit in 2026, rather than pursuing either of these more expensive expansions.

The point about the deficit is well-taken, however another thing that should be kept in mind is the global collapse in birth rates. If there's any time for ambitious family policy, it is now.

It is also worth noting that the Trump-Vance proposal is the only one that is universal. This is important because, as we have written before, the purpose of pro-family policy is not to redistribute between classes, but within the same social class, between people who choose not to have kids and those who choose to have them. A child tax credit with some sort of income-based phaseout is therefore not a pro-family policy, but just redistribution. If the ticket wins and if they do decide to keep this proposal and push it as part of tax reform next year, we hope Republicans remember this.

Policy News You Need to Know

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#FertilityCrisis — Birth rates in Hungary—where the government spends 4% of GDP on pro-family policy, more than any other nation on Earth—are cratering. Births are down 10% in the first three quarters of this year and TFR likely to be below 1.4 for the first time in over a decade. (Via)

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#Vice — Online sports gambling is, we are going to use a nuanced and complex word, bad. New NBER paper: "Following legalization, sports betting spreads quickly...credit card debt increases, available credit decreases, and overdraft frequency rises."

#Euthanasia — You thought euthanasia couldn't be more terrifying? Oh, how wrong you are. You may have heard about the lunatics who are offering a "suicide pod" for those who so desire. Well, it doesn't even work. According to a BBC report, the first victim may have died of strangulation as the device failed to fulfill its intended purpose.

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#UncleTed — A new meta-analysis suggests smartphone addiction is rising all across the world. "We conducted a meta-analysis of problematic smartphone use, focusing on young adults. The analysis included 24 countries, 83 samples, and 33,831 participants... problematic smartphone use is increasing across the world."