7
Min read
An insight that has stayed with us since the election: Reihan Salam's point that it is a "quality of life" election. This struck us as the right balance and the right framing to acknowledge two realities: that the Trump-Vance campaign received a real mandate reflecting a real change of view from the electorate; that, at the same time, it did not receive a Nixon-Reagan-type mandate for radical change, and that if it tries to go "Full MAGA" it will probably face a political backlash.
Upon reflection, we produced this: The Quality of Life Agenda — our proposals for the new Administration. There's a ton there, and we recommend you at least skim it and even read it. Some ideas will be familiar, some will be new. Some will be boring, some will seem outlandish. But they are all designed to be realistic, achievable, and politically advantageous.
The DOJ's Anti-Google Proposal
Last week, the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division published its proposal on what to do about Google. Populist left anti-monopoly activist Matt Stoller has a good overview of the proposal and its components
The most eye-grabbing part of the proposal is the sale of Chrome, Google's browser, which has 67% marketshare, and offers Google as its search engine as default. The proposal also envisages either the sale or the acceptance of stronger regulation of Android to ensure it doesn't privilege Google products or degrade rivals' products. But it's part of a broader package of proposals to essentially make it easier for new entrants to the search markets. For example, most people don't know that Google pays other companies vast sums of money to feature Google search in their browsers or other pieces of software that people use—the proposal would end those payments.
Another interesting way the proposal envisages to open up the search market is to mandate that Google sell its search data—which is the data it uses to fine-tune its search product—at marginal cost and on a non-discriminatory basis, consistent with security and privacy safeguards, to competitors, so they can improve their own search engines.
The proposal would also ban Google investments in AI companies that get into search. So Google would have to divest its stake in Anthropic, the AI company that makes Claude, the chatbot that many (including your correspondent) believe is a more advanced product than ChatGPT.
So, what now? The original antitrust action against Google was launched under the Trump Administration 1.0 and since then the Republican Party and MAGA movement has turned even harder against Big Tech. Vice President-elect JD Vance called for breaking up Google during the campaign. Much will depend on the future Attorney General. Matt Gaetz was a notorious foe of Big Tech. Pam Bondi apparently lobbied for Big Tech. It's a story to watch…
Policy News You Need To Know
#StateCapacity — The way the government hires people seems to be genuinely insane. Apparently, the way it works is that the computer screens applications and only selects those who have checked boxes that say they are "Expert" at every single thing under consideration, and then hires the veterans. This is an eye-opening fact in a recent interview of Jennifer Pahlka by Ezra Klein. It also hints at a potential landmine for Elon and Vivek's DOGE, which is that many sections of the Federal government act as a jobs program for veterans; if they attack that they may awaken the Veterans' lobby, which has a lot of friends on the right.
#FinReg — Cato's Norbert Michel has a good primer on what to expect from the Trump 2.0 Administration on financial regulation.
#Energy #AI #Nuclear — AI's insatiable source for energy leading to a nuclear renaissance has been one of the most interesting trends of the past year or two. The latest involves Nvidia striking a deal at Diablo Canyon—the last remaining nuclear power plant in California.
#Life — Based on the available data, there is significant evidence that the FDA’s removal of the in-person dispensing requirement for mifepristone increased the ER visitation rate due to complications from induced abortion, according to an analysis by Heritage. The FDA's decision was deeply politicized.
#AI — Useful: RAND has pulled together a series of short papers and briefs on AI governance issues.
#Demographics — International bodies produce population forecasts. These forecasts have consistently proven to be way, way too optimistic. And yet they continue. Good thread from Lyman Stone about why.
#Demographics — Speaking of, fascinating new NBER paper from Anup Malani and Ari Jacob, analysing fertility through a new lens: what they call the "effective fertility rate", which is the number of surviving children per female. They further break this down into the number of daughters that survive to reproduce (reproductive EFR) and the number of children that survive to become workers (labor EFR). What they find is that EFR has held a lot more stable over time than fertility data seems to indicate.
#Science — One thing we like to do here is keep an eye on potential breakthrough science, as crazy ideas in labs sometimes become tomorrow's policy headaches (hello, AI). All of which is to say that the Science Corporation (yes that's the name of the company) is developing what's known as biohybrid neural interfaces, which is exactly what it sounds like: engineered biomatter that is used to create a better interface between your brain and a computer. As Elon Musk's Neuralink is seeking FDA approval for devices that link brain and computer, this stuff is coming, and the implications are dizzying. For example, we recall talking to a very smart Silicon Valley scientist who worked for a company working on products similar to Neuralink; as he waxed about the potential to restore sight to the blind and hearing to the deaf, we asked him whether his device could be used for coercive interrogation, at which point he hemmed and hawed and looked at his shoes and changed the subject.
#Chyna #Trade — As the Trump Transition trundles on, Apple CEO Tim Cook visits Beijing to pay obeisance to his real President.
#Media #VibeShift — We present this xeet from John Podhoretz without comment: "Fascinating stuff going on. Politics editor at WSJ laid off today. Wash post national editor “removed” today. Wash bureau chief at NYT replaced a few days ago. MSNBC selloff. Tectonic plates are shifting." Indeed.
Chart of the Day
Interesting fact of which we were not previously aware: health care spending as a share of GDP is roughly flat since 2009. Obamacare W? (Via Matthew Zeitlin)
